{"id":10468,"date":"2017-03-15T10:43:00","date_gmt":"2017-03-15T10:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/2017\/03\/15\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan\/"},"modified":"2017-03-15T10:43:00","modified_gmt":"2017-03-15T10:43:00","slug":"5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"5 Charts That Explain The CBO Report On The Republican Health Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-style:italic;font-size:16px\">By  <a class=\"colorbox\" href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/03\/15\/520181569\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan?utm_medium=RSS&amp;utm_campaign=healthcare\">Danielle Kurtzleben<\/a><\/span>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"ftpimagefix\" style=\"float:left\"><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/03\/15\/520181569\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan?utm_medium=RSS&amp;utm_campaign=healthcare\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/media.npr.org\/assets\/img\/2017\/03\/14\/gettyimages-653013148_custom-fd6bdd04411649ffc78378fc83ebf89689b5781d-s1100-c15.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/media.npr.org\/assets\/img\/2017\/03\/14\/gettyimages-653013148_custom-fd6bdd04411649ffc78378fc83ebf89689b5781d-s1200.jpg\">Enlarge this image<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>\n                Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., holds a news conference with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., at the Capitol on Monday to speak out against the Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n<p>                <b><\/p>\n<p>                    Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>                <\/b><b><b>hide caption<\/b><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b><b>toggle caption<\/b><\/b><\/div>\n<p><span><\/p>\n<p>        Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>    <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Republican health care bill would not affect Americans equally. Older, poorer people would see big reductions in coverage and cost increases, according to a report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. This first step in the GOP plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, would also create a modest deficit reduction.<\/p>\n<p>The report hands Democrats more ammunition in attacking the bill, while Republicans are divided: Some are playing defense, while others are backing away, and some are also <a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2017\/03\/trump-obamacare-repeal-conservatives-236018\">proposing changes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189776\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>To see the potential impact of the bill as it stands, here are five charts, based on the CBO analysis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Uninsured spikes immediately, then rises more slowly<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>First things first: The Republican health care bill would greatly ramp up the number of people who are uninsured. Currently, around 9.5 percent of Americans younger than 65 are uninsured. Under the Republican bill, the uninsured rate in 2026 would be nearly double that, at 18.6 percent, as opposed to the 10 percent it would be at under the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520186056\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>Put into raw numbers, here&#8217;s how the growth in the number of uninsured looks: In 2018, the number of uninsured would be 14 million larger under the Republican bill than under Obamacare. In 2026, it would be 24 million larger.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190624\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>That big upswing in 2018 would be largely attributed to repealing the penalties that came as a part of the individual mandate \u2014 not having a fine would lead lots of people to decide not to get insured. In addition, rising premiums would deter some from buying insurance.<\/p>\n<aside>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<aside>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>In subsequent years, Medicaid changes would account for an increasing number of uninsured, eventually hitting 14 million. The rollback of the Affordable Care Act&#8217;s Medicaid expansion would begin in 2020, cutting the number of people on the program. In addition, no states would be able to take up the expansion in the future, further dropping the number of potential Medicaid enrollees.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Premiums go up, then down (but not for everyone)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The CBO&#8217;s report shows that premiums in the individual insurance market would increase first, then decrease, ending up 10 percent lower than they would be under the current law in 2026. That&#8217;s because young and healthy people would likely drop out early on, bringing premiums up. But the mix of people would eventually shift younger, pushing premiums down \u2014 younger people tend to be healthier, and therefore cost less to insure. In addition, insurers will not have the same requirements for sharing the cost of certain benefits.<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189838\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>Republicans are applauding this. In fact, Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said this week that while he (and others in the administration) are shrugging off the CBO&#8217;s findings as unreliable, this was one part of the report he believed:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Everyplace else where the market is allowed to function, quality goes up and costs go down,&#8221; he said, &#8220;and I think if you look for something the CBO may have gotten right in this report, it&#8217;s that the premiums are actually going to come down in cost.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189748\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><!-- END ID=\"RES520189762\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>But it wouldn&#8217;t work out the same for everyone. Many younger Americans would end up paying less, as would people young and old alike making middle-to-upper-middle incomes, according to the CBO analysis. However, premium costs would hit many low-income adults hard, particularly older low-income adults.<\/p>\n<p>A 64-year-old making $26,500 would pay around $1,700 a month in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.<\/p>\n<p>One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from three-to-one to five-to-one.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190606\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p><strong>Big leaps in the poor and uninsured<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The uninsurance rate will increase among the poor and non-poor alike. But it appears it would grow the most \u2014 more than doubling \u2014 among older, low-income insurance buyers. Not coincidentally, that&#8217;s also the group that would see its cost of insurance climb in a huge way.<\/p>\n<p>The uninsurance rate among people ages 50 to 64 who are below 200 percent of the federal poverty level would leap from 12 to 30 percent.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190745\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p><strong>Smaller deficit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Under the Republican bill, the deficit would shrink by $337 billion over 10 years, or $33.7 billion per year on average.<\/p>\n<p>That reduction would mainly come from the Medicaid rollback and, to a lesser degree, the end of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Both of those changes would reduce spending by a little more each year.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190388\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>All told, Medicaid savings will come out to $880 billion over the decade. That reflects the massive changes that will be made to Medicaid under the plan. Existing enrollees could stay on, but the expanded income threshold that the Affordable Care Act set would move. That would mean fewer people could sign on in the future. Not only that, but the new plan would cap how much the federal government spends on Medicaid, making it much more expensive for states to keep up current levels of coverage.<\/p>\n<p>A smaller deficit may make fiscal conservatives happy, but it&#8217;s altogether a modest shift. The deficit reduction here averages out to $33.7 billion per year. For comparison, the 2016 deficit was $587 billion.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\">Let&#8217;s block ads!<\/a><\/strong> <a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\">(Why?)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source:: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/03\/15\/520181569\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan?utm_medium=RSS&amp;utm_campaign=healthcare\" class=\"colorbox\" title=\"5 Charts That Explain The CBO Report On The Republican Health Plan\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/03\/15\/520181569\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan?utm_medium=RSS&amp;utm_campaign=healthcare<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ftpimagefix\" style=\"float:left\"><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/03\/15\/520181569\/5-charts-that-explain-the-cbo-report-on-the-republican-health-plan?utm_medium=RSS&amp;utm_campaign=healthcare\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/media.npr.org\/assets\/img\/2017\/03\/14\/gettyimages-653013148_custom-fd6bdd04411649ffc78378fc83ebf89689b5781d-s1100-c15.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/media.npr.org\/assets\/img\/2017\/03\/14\/gettyimages-653013148_custom-fd6bdd04411649ffc78378fc83ebf89689b5781d-s1200.jpg\">Enlarge this image<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>\n                Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., holds a news conference with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., at the Capitol on Monday to speak out against the Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n<p>                <b><\/p>\n<p>                    Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>                <\/b><b><b>hide caption<\/b><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b><b>toggle caption<\/b><\/b><\/div>\n<p><span><\/p>\n<p>        Justin Sullivan\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>    <\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Republican health care bill would not affect Americans equally. Older, poorer people would see big reductions in coverage and cost increases, according to a report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. This first step in the GOP plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, would also create a modest deficit reduction.<\/p>\n<p>The report hands Democrats more ammunition in attacking the bill, while Republicans are divided: Some are playing defense, while others are backing away, and some are also <a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2017\/03\/trump-obamacare-repeal-conservatives-236018\">proposing changes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189776\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>To see the potential impact of the bill as it stands, here are five charts, based on the CBO analysis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Uninsured spikes immediately, then rises more slowly<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>First things first: The Republican health care bill would greatly ramp up the number of people who are uninsured. Currently, around 9.5 percent of Americans younger than 65 are uninsured. Under the Republican bill, the uninsured rate in 2026 would be nearly double that, at 18.6 percent, as opposed to the 10 percent it would be at under the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520186056\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>Put into raw numbers, here&#8217;s how the growth in the number of uninsured looks: In 2018, the number of uninsured would be 14 million larger under the Republican bill than under Obamacare. In 2026, it would be 24 million larger.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190624\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>That big upswing in 2018 would be largely attributed to repealing the penalties that came as a part of the individual mandate \u2014 not having a fine would lead lots of people to decide not to get insured. In addition, rising premiums would deter some from buying insurance.<\/p>\n<aside>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<aside>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>In subsequent years, Medicaid changes would account for an increasing number of uninsured, eventually hitting 14 million. The rollback of the Affordable Care Act&#8217;s Medicaid expansion would begin in 2020, cutting the number of people on the program. In addition, no states would be able to take up the expansion in the future, further dropping the number of potential Medicaid enrollees.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Premiums go up, then down (but not for everyone)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The CBO&#8217;s report shows that premiums in the individual insurance market would increase first, then decrease, ending up 10 percent lower than they would be under the current law in 2026. That&#8217;s because young and healthy people would likely drop out early on, bringing premiums up. But the mix of people would eventually shift younger, pushing premiums down \u2014 younger people tend to be healthier, and therefore cost less to insure. In addition, insurers will not have the same requirements for sharing the cost of certain benefits.<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189838\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>Republicans are applauding this. In fact, Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said this week that while he (and others in the administration) are shrugging off the CBO&#8217;s findings as unreliable, this was one part of the report he believed:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Everyplace else where the market is allowed to function, quality goes up and costs go down,&#8221; he said, &#8220;and I think if you look for something the CBO may have gotten right in this report, it&#8217;s that the premiums are actually going to come down in cost.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520189748\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><!-- END ID=\"RES520189762\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP INTERNALLINK INSETTWOCOLUMN INSET2COL \" --><\/p>\n<p>But it wouldn&#8217;t work out the same for everyone. Many younger Americans would end up paying less, as would people young and old alike making middle-to-upper-middle incomes, according to the CBO analysis. However, premium costs would hit many low-income adults hard, particularly older low-income adults.<\/p>\n<p>A 64-year-old making $26,500 would pay around $1,700 a month in premiums right now. Under the proposed changes, that person would pay $14,600, more than eight times more.<\/p>\n<p>One big reason for that is that the new health care bill would change the gap between what young and old people will pay for their premiums. Currently, insurers can charge older enrollees three times what they charge someone younger. The Republican plan would up that from three-to-one to five-to-one.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190606\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p><strong>Big leaps in the poor and uninsured<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The uninsurance rate will increase among the poor and non-poor alike. But it appears it would grow the most \u2014 more than doubling \u2014 among older, low-income insurance buyers. Not coincidentally, that&#8217;s also the group that would see its cost of insurance climb in a huge way.<\/p>\n<p>The uninsurance rate among people ages 50 to 64 who are below 200 percent of the federal poverty level would leap from 12 to 30 percent.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190745\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p><strong>Smaller deficit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Under the Republican bill, the deficit would shrink by $337 billion over 10 years, or $33.7 billion per year on average.<\/p>\n<p>That reduction would mainly come from the Medicaid rollback and, to a lesser degree, the end of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Both of those changes would reduce spending by a little more each year.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END ID=\"RES520190388\" CLASS=\"BUCKETWRAP STATICHTML\" --><\/p>\n<p>All told, Medicaid savings will come out to $880 billion over the decade. That reflects the massive changes that will be made to Medicaid under the plan. Existing enrollees could stay on, but the expanded income threshold that the Affordable Care Act set would move. That would mean fewer people could sign on in the future. Not only that, but the new plan would cap how much the federal government spends on Medicaid, making it much more expensive for states to keep up current levels of coverage.<\/p>\n<p>A smaller deficit may make fiscal conservatives happy, but it&#8217;s altogether a modest shift. The deficit reduction here averages out to $33.7 billion per year. For comparison, the 2016 deficit was $587 billion.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\">Let&#8217;s block ads!<\/a><\/strong> <a class=\"colorbox\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\">(Why?)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10468\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/associatednews.us\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}